Abstract
The subject of the study is probabilistic obligations as one of the elements of hidden obligations, which in turn are included in the category of informal obligations (obligations that do not have all the legislatively established criteria). The aim of the work is the scientific justification for identifying and determining the value of probabilistic obligations. The feasibility of determining probabilistic obligations is due to the need to improve the assessment and other analytical procedures in modern conditions. A probabilistic obligation is defined by the author as a probabilistic obligation of an economic entity, the settlement (cancellation) of which will lead or may lead to the disposal of the organization of resources containing economic benefits, which may appear with a certain probability in the future as a result of inaction of the organization and / or occurrence (non-occurrence) of one or several future uncertain events, including those not controlled by the organization.
The article discusses in detail the main causes of probabilistic obligations for the company. As a result of the research, the following tasks were solved: the essence of such an economic category as probabilistic obligations was revealed; analyzed the reasons for the need to determine them; considered the legal basis and economic reasons for the presence of obligations with a criterion of probability of occurrence; The basic principles of determining the value of probabilistic obligations are proposed. The article discusses examples of the appearance of probabilistic obligations.
The proposed use of probabilistic obligations in the scientific category of the economic category will allow for more efficient management functions, will assist in the development of valuation procedures, will allow for more detailed disclosure of information in accounting (financial) statements, and will also simplify financial analysis, including bankruptcy proceedings.

Key words: probabilistic obligation, informal obligation, hidden obligation, contingent liability, estimated liability, estimated activity, management accounting, financial analysis, own funds, business value.